The Winter solstice is approaching, so we thought we’d use this turning point as a chance to wind down from 2023 and look ahead to 2024, with five predictions for the technology sector.
Lights and trees are up, Christmas tunes are on, consumers are buying, and businesses are busy: yes, it’s that time of year again. The holiday season means different things to different people, so instead of looking ahead to the 25th we thought we’d focus on another date: December 22nd, the Winter solstice.
The shortest day is a significant pivot point, so what better time than now to project and prepare for the coming year. So, find a spot by the fire, help yourself to a mince pie/mulled wine/festive feast leftovers, and peruse our tech predictions for 2024.
1. Will ‘Everything apps’ be everything in 2024?
Super apps or ‘everything apps’ have been big in the Asian market for a number of years now. These platforms (which include the likes of WeChat, Alipay, Grab and Gojeck), allow users to access a range of services and features in a single application. They’ve yet to take off to quite the same extent in the US and Europe despite the stubborn business efforts of some tech firms.
These efforts will continue in 2024. Uber, for instance, will be rolling out its Black Cabs in London feature early in the year; a controversial move considering the impact the app has had on the traditional London cabbie space. You can already book flights, train and coach trips with the app, something the company will likely promote further next year, perhaps with the aim of becoming a one-stop-shop for travel.
Second, we couldn’t make an everything app prediction without mentioning the (admittedly unpredictable) Elon Musk. In October, Musk told a meeting with X (formerly Twitter) employees, “you [X users] won’t need a bank account” because “your entire financial life” will be accessible via the X app. He promises that, “If it involves money. It’ll be on our platform”; the idea sounds grand, but as with many of Elon’s utterances, the details are still pretty hazy. The company is reportedly working on licensing agreements in the US to make this a reality, with CEO Linda Yaccarino saying that the plan would be a “full opportunity” in the next calendar year.
2. A prosperous year for NLP – and ChatGPT
We could write a whole blog – no, make that a whole blog series – on AI predictions for 2024. Narrowing it down to one was a difficult task, so where else to turn for help than Chat GPT! Turns out our AI friend couldn’t do much better than we could in terms of making and picking a prediction. At least it’s honest about its flaws, though. When asked to gaze into its AI crystal ball, ChatGPT responded: ‘I cannot predict specific events or market movements as my training only includes information up to January 2022, and I don't have real-time capabilities.’
Despite this, it still managed to draw up a shortlist of five AI predictions. These included advancements in Natural Language Processing (NLP) and therefore a prosperous year to come for ChatGPT itself.: ‘NLP has been a rapidly evolving field, and improvements in language models and conversational AI are expected to continue. This could lead to more sophisticated chatbots, language translation tools, and content generation systems.’
3. Smartphone as authenticator: fighting cybercriminals from your pocket
There is one low-cost, near-universal, easily accessible tool that has the potential to significantly reduce the risk of cybercrime. Smartphones sit in the pockets and hands of most of us, but the power of the device as a means of proving our identity is under-utilised. This could change in 2024, as app makers exploit the strengths of the smartphone as an authenticator.
Banks regularly use one-time-passcodes sent via SMS as a means of authenticating identity and allowing access to online services. More service providers in more sectors are expected to follow suit, benefitting both consumers and the telco market. According to Deloitte, there were an estimated 1.3 trillion two-factor authentication (2FA) passcodes sent via SMS in 2023, generating an estimated $26 billion from network traffic.
We expect there will be more providers moving away from SMS as a 2FA means and increasing reliance on 2FA apps such as Google Authenticator, Microsoft Authenticator and a raft of other third party offerings. More mature businesses will want to embed 2FA in their own apps. This is something our Fintech app development team is very happy to discuss.
Consumers must also get on board with this trend. Many apps already offer the option of 2FA; it’s up to us to adapt our behaviour and embrace this as a critical step to accessing apps and data securely.
4. SaaS, AI and acquisitions in the software space
Enterprise software rarely makes it into the media spotlight, but it’s the workhorse that powers thousands of businesses and connects millions of customers. We expect those numbers to grow in 2024, driven by a healthy software-as-a-service (SaaS) market.
Moving to the cloud is perceived as less of a challenge than it once was, says Linda Ivy-Rosser, VP, Research Director at analyst firm Forrester, who predicts that more businesses will invest in SaaS vs on-premises, as they seek better collaboration and innovation. In addition to developments in enterprise software products, we’ll also see exciting movements for enterprise software vendors: Ivy-Rosser also predicts ‘at least one notable, $5 billion-plus acquisition in 2024.’
Finally, we can’t mention software in 2024 without (again!) mentioning AI. More enterprise software companies will integrate AI into their products, while an increasing number of software developers will utilise AI-supported development tools to enhance coding and boost productivity.
5. Don’t believe the hype: a more cautious approach to the business of tech?
Office rental company WeWork was valued at $47 billion in 2019, and benefited from significant backing by SoftBank. Cryptocurrency exchange FTX was worth $32 billion at its peak in 2022, with investors and techies awed by its founder Sam Bankman-Fried. Closer to home, London AI-powered healthtech startup Babylon Health reached a valuation of over $4 billion in 2021, having secured support from the founders of DeepMind, major investments firms and health insurance companies.
How different things looked this year. WeWork filed for bankruptcy in November. Bankman-Fried was found guilty of fraud charges in the same month, following the rapid downfall of FTX in 2022. And Babylon Health laid off hundreds of staff, lost over $900 million and was forced to sell off its UK assets for just £500,000.
All three companies dazzled investors, competitors and politicians. The actions and subsequent fate of all three should serve as a cautionary tale to the tech sector – and wider world – in 2024. Yes, tech startups and visionary ideas can boost economies, and yes, cryptocurrency and AI are exciting and hold promise. But we must exercise caution and apply due diligence. This is not only a cautionary tale to foreign investors and the business community. Babylon Health, for instance, had contracts with the NHS as well as private health companies.
The winter solstice marks the shortest and darkest day of the year in the northern hemisphere, but that doesn’t mean it should be anticipated with doom and gloom. This is a turning point when we can celebrate the successes of 2023, look ahead to what 2024 has in store and remain optimistic (but cautious) about the year ahead. Things will only get brighter from this day on!